Idaho Department of Labor Press Release
A new forecasting model produced by the Idaho Department of Labor projects that the statewide population will increase by 15.3 percent from 2015 to 2025. This projection estimates that the state population will reach approximately 1,907,000 in 2025.
While national population growth remains low – at approximately 0.5 percent annually – Idaho’s population growth is boosted by high levels of in-migration. Annual total population growth in Idaho is now projected at 1.4 percent – almost three times as high as the national growth rate.
Due to both the nature of Idaho’s in-migration patterns – which predominantly sees retirees moving into the state – and the aging of Idaho’s existing population, the majority of Idaho’s population growth is projected to occur in retirement age groups. The 65 and older population is projected to increase from 243,356 to 330,334, for growth of 35.7 percent – more than twice the rate of the state’s total population growth. While the over-65 population currently accounts for only 14.7 percent of Idaho’s population, it is forecast to account for 34.4 percent of the total growth.
In contrast, the youth population is projected to grow more slowly, due to declining birth rates and the relatively low in-migration of families with children. The under-15 population in Idaho is projected to grow from 360,231 to 391,792, or 8.8 percent. While the over-65 population is projected to grow as a share of the total population from 14.7 percent to 17.3 percent, the under-15 population’s corresponding share of the total is expected to decrease from 21.7 percent to 20.5 percent.
The geographic dynamics of Idaho’s population growth imply a continued trend of urbanization. The majority of population growth is forecasted to occur in the state’s major urban areas; more than two-thirds of total growth – 68.8 percent – is projected to occur in Idaho’s three most populous counties: Ada, Canyon and Kootenai counties. In all, by 2025 the share of Idaho’s population living in urban counties is expected to increase from 70.6 percent to 74.3 percent.
Among Idaho’s sub-state regions, the northern, southwestern and eastern regions will experience the fastest growth, according to projections. Northern Idaho’s population is expected to grow from a 2015 total of 225,007 to 256,936 by 2025, for growth of 14.2 percent. In the same period, southwestern Idaho is projected to grow from 749,500 to 897,118, for growth of 19.7 percent, while eastern Idaho is projected to grow from 214,078 to 249,957, for growth of 16.8 percent. These three regions are collectively expected to account for 85.2 percent of the state’s total growth.
